Dolphins vs. Bills Game Preview

The Dolphins welcome the Bills to town this Sunday for a 1 PM ET showdown. The Bills are fresh off a decisive victory against their rival Chiefs, and the Dolphins look to bounce back from an embarrassing loss to the now-healthy Lamar Jackson–led Ravens.

Recent history does not bode well for the Dolphins against the Bills: they’ve dropped 13 of their last 14 regular-season matchups against the AFC East powerhouse. But before we go writing them off, let’s take a deeper look at the history of the results at home.

Last year was a 31-10 blowout loss, but the year before that was a thrilling 21-14 loss to end off the season with the division on the line. The year before that, shockingly, the Dolphins pulled off the win 21-19 in yet another thrilling finish, where Josh Allen and the offense were about 0.5 seconds too late to spike the ball and try for a last-second 59-yard field goal for the win after the Dolphins handed them the ball via the now-infamous Dolphins “butt safety” with a minute and a half remaining.

So that’s two out of the last three home games being competitive against a fierce, well-coached football team- and even winning one of them! I know, I'm grasping at straws here. But there’s not much positive to take out of this rivalry in recent Dolphins memory, so I try my best.

The Bills have looked more and more like the Bills of recent memory since the ugly loss to the Falcons a month ago. The Dolphins? Not so good. Other than the good-looking win against the Falcons a few weeks ago, their season has been abysmal and, frankly, an embarrassment to watch. And don't get me started on the trade deadline…

I’ll be watching Tua very closely. Recent Mike McDaniel comments suggest that he’s open to benching Tua for someone else if he continues not performing well (TBD who they’ll want to put out there- although I’d certainly rather see Quinn Ewers, a young QB with lots of upside, to see whether or not the Dolphins may have something in him), and it would be fascinating on many fronts to see what would happen from there. What would it take for McDaniel to pull the trigger? What would that mean for his massive contract going forward? Would the Dolphins trade him? Would anyone want him if they have to take on even half of his contract? What would that mean for his seemingly fragile confidence—which he has admitted in past years was not very high (thank you, Brian Flores)? If they go with Ewers and he impresses, do the Dolphins stick with him or draft another QB in a very stacked draft next year? So many questions…

I'm not expecting much from the Dolphins, even given the somewhat promising history playing the Bills at home. Bills Mafia (arghhhh) will probably show up big—not unlike Ravens fans did last week (which Tua said disrupted his play-calling). These teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum: a Bills team that has sky-high expectations for the next few years after giving their franchise QB a massive extension on one side, and the directionless Dolphins, with rock-bottom expectations at this point, on the other.

My prediction: Bills 37, Dolphins 17