Dolphins vs Patriots Game Preview

The Dolphins head to Gillette Stadium for a Week 18 matchup against their arch-nemesis, the New England Patriots. Surprisingly, this game has possibly more meaning for the Dolphins than it even does for the Patriots—but the meaning behind it goes in two entirely different directions.

For the Patriots, who clinched the AFC East last week, the No. 1 seed is still within reach. A win against the Dolphins paired with a Broncos loss to the Chargers (who are resting Justin Herbert) would give the Patriots the No. 1 seed and a free pass to the second round. If the Patriots and Broncos both win, the Broncos would claim the top spot due to tiebreakers, and the Patriots would drop to No. 2. If the Patriots lose, they could fall to the 3 seed if the Jaguars beat the Titans. So there is something on the line for New England this week.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, are playing with an entirely different objective—one that could be argued is even more important than the Patriots’: All eyes will once again be on Quinn Ewers. This final game against a playoff team with a top-10 defense will be Ewers’ toughest test of his young career, and he may very well be feeling the heat. If he performs well on the road, in a hostile environment, against a very good team, I don’t see how the Dolphins don’t make him QB1 for next season. There would really be no excuse not to. They’ll be in a transition year next year and probably won’t be competing for a playoff spot. There are a very limited number of talented QBs in next year’s draft, and the Dolphins aren’t picking high enough to have a chance at any of them (and it would take a king’s ransom to trade up—which the Dolphins don’t really have available to offer). Sitting right in their lap is a late-round QB who proved himself worthy last season. Why would you not start him?

However, if Ewers puts up a dud on Sunday, things get more murky. If he plays terribly, the Dolphins will have a difficult decision ahead of them: stick with Ewers next season after mixed results in a small sample size, or look elsewhere and award Ewers a backup role?

This is why this is such an important game for the Dolphins. The Patriots’ importance only spans this season, while the Dolphins’ importance could affect their entire organizational future. I’m not even trying to be hyperbolic- I really feel this way.

Anyway, about the matchup. The Patriots have a top-5 offense and a top-10 defense in the NFL this year, led by probable-MVP-runner-up Drake Maye, who is having a breakout season in his second year under center. The Patriots have made headlines this week, though (and not the good kind) with Stefon Diggs and defensive tackle Christian Barmore both being accused of unrelated assault charges in the same week. We’ll see if it affects their performance on the field. They should both be starting despite the criminal charges. Whatever the outside noise, this will be a very tough matchup for the Dolphins.

The Dolphins, as mentioned before, come in with hawk-eyes on Quinn Ewers. I know I’m obsessing over the Ewers thing, but it’s not for no reason. He has really shown poise, confidence, and talent in his first two games, and he looked much better in his second game than his first. And if he continues to show the NFL that he can play at this level, why wouldn't you obsess over him? He certainly knows that everyone in the Dolphins organization will be watching him, so this will show everyone how he handles pressure against a top team on the road.

The Patriots are hovering around both a top-10 pass defense and rush defense, so we’ll see how they handle Achane and Ewers collectively. I think a big reason Ewers played so much better in his second game than his first had a lot to do with the success of the run game in the second game (aside from the fact that the first was a blowout).

And once again, for the final time this season, I ask the Dolphins one favor: please keep the game close enough that Ewers has the opportunity to showcase his talents in meaningful minutes. It’s a tough ask this week, but if they can hang close enough, we’ll be able to get a much clearer picture of what Ewers is—or isn’t.

My prediction: Patriots 41, Dolphins 20.