Dolphins vs. Saints Game Preview

The Dolphins are fresh off a bye and are proud owners of a 2-game win streak (and winners of 3 of their last 4), keeping their slim playoff hopes afloat. Last week, even though the Dolphins didn’t play, they still managed to “lose” by virtue of just about every team ahead of them in the Wild Card race winning — including the Chiefs, Ravens, and Jaguars (although the Bills did lose to the Texans, and there's an argument to be made that the Dolphins’ playoff chances slightly increased from that).

The playoff dream is nothing more than that, but until they’re officially eliminated, I’ll keep the faith. The Dolphins are caught between two opposing wishes: on the one hand, obviously we all want them to make the playoffs (even though we realize how far-fetched that is). On the other hand, every loss gets them a higher draft pick, which offers hope for the future. But you certainly can’t have both…

Anyway, the Saints come in having lost 5 of their last 6 (and with only 2 wins on the season), with their most recent loss coming at the hands of Kirk Cousins and the Falcons, 24–10. The Saints haven’t looked good all year (if their 2–9 record didn’t give it away) — mostly on the offensive side. Aside from Alvin Kamara (who hasn’t had a great year himself), this team just doesn’t have anyone they can rely on. They have no stars, no leaders, and no identity. Their offense kind of reminds me of this year’s Raiders — just an overall lack of excitement in their games. Although it’s not great overall, Tyler Shough isn’t all that bad. He certainly hasn’t shown anyone that he can be a starter in this league, but the expectations for him weren’t very high either. He has a powerful arm and a nice release, but there’s not much more than that.

The Dolphins need to take advantage of the Saints’ slow offense by keeping them that way. Miami’s defense looked terrible to start the season but has found some success lately — holding opponents under 14 points in 3 of their last 4 games. If they can replicate that, that’s the recipe for success in this matchup.

The Saints’ defense is not as bad as you might think. They rank 9th in pass defense in terms of pass yards per game. But as we all know, the Dolphins’ offense runs entirely through De’Von Achane. The Saints’ run defense is bottom-half in the league, and that’s where Miami needs to plan its game. If they feed him enough, that should generate enough real estate to get them more than 15 points. And if the defense continues its newfound success against a bad Saints offense (which they absolutely should), the Dolphins should win this game. If, on the other hand, McDaniel decides to get cute and calls a pass-heavy game, that’s where things could go wrong. Just run the ball, Mike. Run the ball.

My prediction: Dolphins 20, Saints 13.