Dolphins-Commanders Full Recap

The Dolphins squeaked away with a win Sunday in Madrid, improving their record to 4–7 and getting our minds rolling about the playoffs ever-so-slightly. But first, let’s unpack the game.

Tua played, as I mentioned last post, “good enough.” 14–20 for less than 200 yards isn’t going to get you any player-of-the-game accolades, but today it was enough to allow the Dolphins’ playmakers to carry the load. And most importantly for the league leader in interceptions, he didn’t throw any of them against the Commanders on Sunday. One deep throw almost got picked off, but that was really a let’s-see-what-my-receiver-can-do-with-this type of throw (still not sure why he threw that on first down, but whatever). If he plays like this every game then I don’t see the Dolphins going anywhere whatsoever, but against a Marcus Mariota–led Commanders team who is continuing to underwhelm this season, it worked. But he will definitely need to improve going forward. The Dolphins only managing 16 points (with overtime) against one of the worst defenses in the league is not impressive, to say the least. They will need to clean that up, but they got the win nonetheless.

The Dolphins' offense revolves around one player: De’Von Achane. The guy has been carrying the offense on his shoulders basically single-handedly for the past year. Talk about a draft steal (third-rounder)! If there were a widely accepted WAR-type stat in the NFL, he would be near the top of the league. He’s got incredible strength- especially for such a small, unassuming guy- and he can find whatever holes the O-line gives him. Oh right, he’s stupid fast, too! He played another game which would probably not have been won if not for him.

How about the emergence of Ollie Gordon II? The Dolphins drafted him in the sixth round of this year’s draft to be a power back to complement Achane, and he has been improving each and every week within that role. He’s big, and McDaniel is slowly learning how to play him into his offense. He recently learned the call to play with Gordon: run the ball straight up the middle and see who can tackle the 6-2, 225-pounder. Guess what? It’s not easy! He’s turning into a big threat for the Dolphins, and with both him and Achane to complement each other, the run game can be mean (which will be great for Tua as well).

Here’s where we need to discuss Mike McDaniel’s coaching decision on not one but two plays on the final drive of regulation (not counting the 10-second drive at the very end). Everyone is talking about the decision to go for it on fourth—which we will get to shortly—but we first need to talk about the play preceding it. The Dolphins had a third-and-goal at the Commanders’ 1-yard line. If this isn’t the perfect time to bring in Ollie Gordon, when is?! You don’t need Achane’s speed right now! Wrong guy! You need a big guy who can plow his way through defenders for one yard—not the guy who can slip a tackle or two and streak up the field for 30! Ollie Gordon was the perfect guy to bring in for that play and Achane was the worst guy to bring in for that play. That was a massive mistake on McDaniel, and it did not pay off for them.

Then came the fourth-down call. I assume everyone was with me watching it in real time, screaming at the TV and begging for this to be some sort of joke. What on earth was McDaniel thinking?! Let’s play through each scenario. Say the Dolphins play it safe and kick the field goal. There’s about a 99.9% chance Patterson hits the 19-yard chip shot. Now you kick it off and force the Commanders to march down the field (which they had absolutely not proven they were capable of doing the entire game) and try for a game-winning field goal with Matt Gay, who had already missed a 51-yarder earlier. That means they would ideally want to get him closer than that—maybe 47–48 yards. That would make their target line around the 30-yard line. Even if they start at their own 30 (which is no guarantee with kickoffs these days), they still would need to get 40 yards in under two minutes with no timeouts remaining to give Gay a chance to tie it—not to win it. That scenario is very favorable for the Dolphins. Now let’s go to scenario number two: Say the Dolphins go for it on fourth and goal at the 1—which they already failed at earlier. If they get it, that forces the Commanders to get a touchdown to tie it, which would require them to go 70 yards down the field. But if the Dolphins miss, then the Commanders need 70 yards to win it; otherwise, the game would go to overtime.

In these situations, I think you always take the points for the lead and put your team in the best position to win in the easiest way. Take the sure points which the defense handed to you instead of risking coming away with nothing and putting your team at risk of losing the game.

Obviously, McDaniel thought differently, and at first it didn’t work out for them, as Ollie Gordon was stuffed behind the line for a turnover. (I know you’re screaming at me—“See? Ollie Gordon couldn’t do it! Stop complaining about the third-down run with Achane!”—and I hear you. But I still think Gordon was the smarter call than Achane in that situation. I’m not saying he automatically gets in—as was evidenced by the next play—but he gives you a better chance.)

In the end, the gamble didn’t cost them, as Gay missed a go-ahead 56-yarder (and got cut after the game as a result), and the Dolphins took care of business in overtime.

Now the Dolphins go into the bye feeling good about themselves and with a chance for something to play for if they keep the winning streak going. Here's hoping!