Dolphins vs. Commanders Game Preview

The Dolphins travel to Madrid to “host” the Commanders this Sunday with kickoff at 9:30 AM ET (feel bad for all you West Coast fans this week). The Dolphins are coming off a well-played, clean, dominating performance over the Bills, which they seemed quite thrilled about afterwards (well deserved!) and improved their record to 3-7. The also-3-7 Commanders are coming in limping, to say the least. They’re losers of 5 straight — which is usually too long of a streak to recover from in a short NFL season. Their most recent four games have been atrocious, though. They’ve lost by an average of 22.25 points per game in that span! And it’s not like they got blown out in just one of those games to rack up the average. They’ve lost each of them by at least 21! That is not a good stat, to say the least. They are in quite a rough stretch, and they’ve looked the part, too. Their defense is nonexistent in that span, and they’ve mostly had to rely on backup Marcus Mariota for the QB duties, with Jayden Daniels down after a terrible-looking elbow injury a few weeks back. I really thought he was out for the season — which still may be true — after I (regrettably) watched the replay, but the Commanders still haven’t put him on IR, so that could be a good sign for him. He’s a fantastic QB who’s put up good numbers in his limited sophomore season after a magical run in his first year under center, which culminated in him snagging Rookie of the Year honors.

The Dolphins look to climb back closer to .500 after a horrible first half of the year. Though that sounds overly ambitious, if you look at their upcoming schedule it’s not hard to see them getting there, as bad as things have gone for them thus far. After the Commanders, they have a bye (their choice after the international game). Then they go on to face the Saints, Jets, Steelers, and Bengals. There is an argument to be made that they can all really be viewed as winnable games — some more than others, obviously, especially seeing how Joe Burrow’s 21-day practice window was just opened — but if they can win all those games, that would put them at 8-7. Then they finish out the season at home against the Bucs and at the Patriots — who may be resting their starters if they don’t have anything to play for. The Bucs will certainly be a big mountain to climb, but if they can finish the season at 9-8 then with the right fortune they can squeeze into the playoffs.

Now, all this is navigating many what-ifs, and the chances of them all happening are near zero, but I don’t think I’m dreaming too much for these things to happen. If you take each game on its own standing, each game is winnable in theory. The Bengals (if Burrow is back and playing well after being shelved for three months) and the Bucs will be difficult games to win. If they can win one of those games, it’s not inconceivable (#PrincessBride) to suggest that they can finish the season 9-8.

But I really need to stop. I do this every. Single. Year. No matter how bad the Dolphins are playing and no matter what their record looks like, after one good game I get convinced that they’ve suddenly found their mojo and will be able to keep it up for the rest of the season and into the playoffs. And then… you know how it goes…

Back to the game. (One at a time, Parker. Take it one. Game. At. A. Time.) It’ll be interesting to see how the boys perform in another country after the best win of the season. I could really see them coming out either way. I can see them continuing to play well off last week, and I can see them putting up a dud just like they did against the Ravens after a great win vs. the Falcons. I’m leaning toward a good game for them, just because my gut is telling me so (this is why I don’t bet on sports :) ). The past few years, once the defense found its rhythm it usually was able to stick around. A game like the Dolphins had last week (three turnovers against a top offense, hard tackling, and getting to Josh Allen three times) can get a defense right and can hopefully carry them the rest of the way. Although I was completely wrong in last week’s prediction (Bills 37-17), that doesn’t mean I’m going to shy away from making them.

My prediction: Dolphins 34, Commanders 24